Narrative influence on support of a public policy: The case of nuclear power in The Netherlands.

We propose a new methodology to systematically transform presurveyed argument preferences into fictional narratives, that can help people to imagine the consequences of future events, and measure how they impact willingness to pay for a public policy. We apply narrative theory to construct two short narratives that depict an imaginary future, bleak due to climate change or energy dependence, and show experimentally that exposure to these narratives increases contributions in a Public Goods game, framed as payments toward the construction of new nuclear plant in The Netherlands. Our results suggest that fictional narratives can be used (and misused) as a tool of economic policy that allows conveying relevant information to people about complex issues. We discuss the ethical use of narratives and the value of their transparent construction for democratic will-formation and policy implementation when abstract factual information can be difficult to process or comprehend.

Regional and periodic asymmetries in the effect of Russia-Ukraine war on global stock markets.

This study aims to investigate regional and periodic asymmetries in the impact of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war on global equity markets. Employing the event study methodology, the current study examines global stock market reactions within a 61-day window centred around the event day, i.e., February 24, 2022. MSCI equity indices of 47 sample countries have been utilized to ensure uniformity in the index development methodology. They provide broader coverage of global equity markets by including large and mid-cap companies, representing approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization for each sampled country. The study extends the event window to 61 days to assess the enduring effects of the war over a relatively longer period. The research delineates regional and periodic asymmetries and posits that the impact of the war on a market is contingent upon its geographical proximity and trade relations with Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, the impact is stronger during a shorter window surrounding the event date but diminishes over the extended period.

The impact of economy policy uncertainty and oil price shocks on G20 banks' stock performance: Wavelet coherence and non-parametric causality in quantiles approach.

This study employs nonparametric causality-in-quantiles and wavelet coherence techniques to examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty and oil price variations on bank stocks in twelve prominent global economies. The results reveal that the effects of both economic policy uncertainty and oil prices on bank stock values vary significantly across countries and over time. Notably, during stress periods, we observe an inverse relationship between economic policy uncertainty and bank stocks in multiple countries, namely, Brazil, Canada, France, India, Russia, and the USA, with Japan exhibiting a particularly strong and long-term adverse correlation. Similarly, the influence of oil prices is primarily observed during crisis periods, but it demonstrates a substantial co-movement with bank stocks across the sample countries except Brazil. Our empirical analysis holds valuable implications for policymakers, bankers, investors, and portfolio managers.

How does world economic policy uncertainty influence the carbon dioxide emission reporting and performance? Study of Fortune Global 500 firms.

This study contributes significantly to the field by utilising the World Economic Policy Uncertainty (WEPU) Index, as devised by (Ahir in Nat Bureau Econ Res 2022), to scrutinise its impact on carbon dioxide emission reporting and performance. Employing the generalised method of moments (GMM) on a substantial dataset of 604 Fortune Global 500 firms spanning from 2005 to 2020, our analysis reveals crucial insights. The research elucidates the dual influence of WEPU Index: a positive correlation with carbon dioxide emission reporting and a negative correlation aimed at mitigating adverse effects and promoting sustainable practices, thereby enhancing firm trust. Moreover, the findings shed light on how companies in emission-intensive industries tend to ramp up carbon dioxide emission reporting, potentially to bolster investor confidence, particularly during high WEPU Index periods. Furthermore, this study uncovers a compelling association between high emitters and lowered carbon dioxide emission performance, stemming from political and social pressures to integrate environmental considerations. Notably, this pressure intensifies during periods of increased WEPU Index. The empirical results presented in this study carry immediate practical implications. Specifically, they offer valuable insights for regulatory bodies and industry associations, guiding the development of enhanced environmental and social reporting regulations and guidelines, particularly concerning carbon emission reporting and performance.

Impact of oil price volatility and economic policy uncertainty on business investment - Insights from the energy sector.

This research employs a worldwide sample of 4017 energy sector companies from 1996 to 2022 to examine the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and oil price uncertainty (OPU) on corporate investment in oil/energy sector and this study analyze how market instability and international economic disasters shape the connection between OPU and business assets. GLM regression with firms-years fixed effects and firm-based clustering indicate that both OPU and EPU had a detrimental influence on corporate investment in energy sector. Generalized linear models provide a universal method for addressing various response modeling issues. It is also revealed that oil-producing nations experience OPU and EPU's negative effects more severely than oil-consuming nations. This paper also demonstrates that the link between corporate investment, OPU and EPU is influenced by nations that produce oil, market volatility, and global financial crises. Strong evidence was found supporting the notion that OPU and EPU had a statistically significant detrimental impact on business assets. The findings of the paper are consistent under a variety of robustness tests and show that the association between OPU and EPU and business assets still holds. The results have significant bearing on the asset strategies that company managers and governments should adopt in light of the volatility of oil prices and EPU and this study provide valuable insights for policymakers who are focused on achieving energy transition, enhancing energy security, and meeting environmental goals such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Evaluating the role of financial globalization and oil consumption on ecological quality: A new perspective from quantile-on-quantile granger causality.

Global warming has progressed into a pressing global concern, primarily driven by human activities. To address this issue, it is vital to identify the key drivers of ecological quality and develop effective policies in response. Consequently, this study seeks to empirically examine the causal effect of financial globalization, economic growth, economic policy uncertainty, and oil consumption on the load capacity factor (LF) in Brazil. The analysis utilizes quarterly data spanning from 1990 to 2021. In this pursuit, the study introduces an array of quantile-based methodologies, encompassing quantile ADF, PP, and KPSS tests, as well as the innovative Quantile-on-Quantile Granger Causality (QQGC) approach. The QQGC represents a notable advancement beyond traditional quantile Granger causality (QGC) methods, as it accounts for the conditional distribution of dependent and independent variables. This study bridges a critical gap in the existing literature by introducing the QQGC to capture the causal influence of the regressors on LF. The findings derived from the QQGC analysis indicate that financial globalization, economic growth, economic policy uncertainty, and oil consumption significantly predict LF across all quantiles. These results offer valuable insights that can inform the formulation of effective policies and strategies aimed at addressing ecological quality and mitigating the impacts of global warming.

The impacts of global economic policy uncertainty on green bond returns: A systematic literature review.

This study utilizes the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) framework to investigate the interconnectedness of green bond with various financial markets, aiming to clarify their relationship with global economic uncertainty and their impact on returns. After a comprehensive search of pertinent research papers from January 2016 to September 2023, 79 relevant articles were identified. The analysis delves into the evolution of research on green bonds' interactions with economic policy uncertainty considering the financial markets, analytical methodologies, contributions to the field, and the role of green bonds under both normal and extreme market conditions. The study reveals noteworthy findings: firstly, the interplay between green bonds and financial markets is influenced by macroeconomic factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, which were significant sources of economic policy uncertainty during the study period. Secondly, during times of global economic uncertainties, green Bonds act as net transmitters of spillovers in the short term but shifts to net receivers in the long term, positioning them as strategic hedging assets rather than safe-havens, particularly against spillovers from crude oil and CO2 emission in times of economic uncertainties. Additionally, the review highlights prevalent methodologies employed to assess the relationship between global economic policy uncertainty and green bonds. Some of which include quantile approaches, the Diebold & Yilmaz 2012 spillover index, as well as various models like VAR models, GARCH models, ARDL models. Notably, certain countries like China, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam emerge as key contributors to this research domain. The review not only consolidates existing knowledge but also provides valuable insights for investors and policymakers regarding green bonds in terms of risk management and asset allocation, while also pointing towards potential avenues for future research in this field.

Return spillover of Vietnam's sectors in response to US uncertainties.

This paper investigates the impact of US economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on the return spillovers among 24 sectors in Vietnam from April 13, 2017, to April 8, 2022. The VAR-based connectedness approach and quantile techniques are employed in this study. Empirical results from the study reveal that an increase in US economic policy uncertainty significantly impacts return spillovers. However, this impact is only observed during periods of heightened uncertainty in US economic policy. Economic policy uncertainty plays a more prominent role in affecting the spillovers across Vietnamese sectors compared to geopolitical risk. Findings from our analysis also highlight the crucial role of the banking sector as a transmitter of risk in the Vietnamese stock market.

Assessing the effects of population-level political, economic and social exposures, interventions and policies on inclusive economy outcomes for health equity in high-income countries: a systematic review of reviews.

BACKGROUND: A fairer economy is increasingly recognised as crucial for tackling widening social, economic and health inequalities within society. However, which actions have been evaluated for their impact on inclusive economy outcomes is yet unknown. OBJECTIVE: Identify the effects of political, economic and social exposures, interventions and policies on inclusive economy (IE) outcomes in high-income countries, by systematically reviewing the review-level evidence. METHODS: We conducted a review of reviews; searching databases (May 2020) EconLit, Web of Science, Sociological Abstracts, ASSIA, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences, Public Health Database, Embase and MEDLINE; and registries PROSPERO, Campbell Collaboration and EPPI Centre (February 2021) and grey literature (August/September 2020). We aimed to identify reviews which examined social, political and/or economic exposures, interventions and policies in relation to two IE outcome domains: (i) equitable distribution of the benefits of the economy and (ii) equitable access to the resources needed to participate in the economy. Reviews had to include primary studies which compared IE outcomes within or between groups. Quality was assessed using a modified version of AMSTAR-2 and data synthesised informed by SWiM principles. RESULTS: We identified 19 reviews for inclusion, most of which were low quality, as was the underlying primary evidence. Most reviews (n = 14) had outcomes relating to the benefits of the economy (rather than access to resources) and examined a limited set of interventions, primarily active labour market programmes and social security. There was limited high-quality review evidence to draw upon to identify effects on IE outcomes. Most reviews focused on disadvantaged groups and did not consider equity impacts. CONCLUSIONS: Review-level evidence is sparse and focuses on 'corrective' approaches. Future reviews should examine a diverse set of 'upstream' actions intended to be inclusive 'by design' and consider a wider range of outcomes, with particular attention to socioeconomic inequalities.

Examining the linkage between economic policy uncertainty, coal price, and carbon pricing in China: Evidence from pilot carbon markets.

Economic policies affect companies' production decisions. And the energy consumption volume is an intuitive reflection of the enterprise's production decisions. In China, coal is the main source of carbon emissions and the most important energy source. Therefore, the coal market and the uncertainty of economic policies are both directly tied to the carbon market. This study explores both the direct impact of economic policy uncertainty and coal price on carbon prices as well as the indirect impact of economic policy uncertainty on carbon prices through coal prices by utilizing the DCC-GARCH model and the NARDL model. The findings indicate that the dynamic correlations between coal prices and the CEPU are always negative and that those between the price of carbon and the CEPU vary by area. Meanwhile, the dynamic correlations between coal and carbon prices are only positive in Shenzhen and Beijing. Both coal prices and economic policy uncertainty produce asymmetrical impacts on carbon prices. Some policy implications are provided for developing the carbon markets in light of the results drawn from the study.

The dampening effect of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty in the linkage between economic complexity and environmental degradation in the G-20.

The question remains whether high geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty will have a dampening or enhancing effect on pollution factors. In this regard, the study empirically investigates the effects of economic complexity, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, renewable energy consumption and economic growth on environmental pollution for G-20 countries from 1997 to 2018. The long-term coefficient estimates, derived from the FMOLS estimator, support the inverted U-shaped EKC linkages between economic complexity and ecological footprint, carbon footprint and carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, over the long term, geopolitical risks, renewable energy use, and the interaction between economic complexity and policy uncertainty have a positive impact on environmental quality in the G-20 economies. Conversely, economic growth and the interaction between economic complexity and geopolitical risk are negatively associated with environmental quality. Additionally, economic policy uncertainty has a positive effect on ecological footprint carbon footprint and carbon dioxide emissions. Finally, causality results revealed that explanatory variables are the cause of environmental pollution indicators. Hence, in order to advance environmental quality in these nations, precautions must be taken to mitigate the effects of economic policy uncertainty and boost the accessibility of renewable energy sources. Additionally, while not advised as a policy measure, the feasible economic fallout of geopolitical risk should also be considered.

Quantile connectedness between the climate policy and economic uncertainty: Evidence from the G7 countries.

In this study, we investigate the transmission mechanism between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the G7 countries. To account for different conditions, we use a quantile-based VAR (Q-VAR) model over the period between 2000 and 2021. Our results show high connectedness between the CPU and the EPU of G7 countries, particularly at extreme quantile orders. On the other hand, the spillover effects between climate and economic policy uncertainty differ depending on the distributional levels of the uncertainty indices. The CPU is a net receiver of uncertainty shocks, while for almost all countries, the EPU acts as a net receiver or emitter, depending on the economic situation. During times of high or low economic uncertainty, the EPU of all G7 countries is strongly affected by shocks originating from the CPU. Moreover, the results indicate that the dynamic spillover patterns between EPU and CPU vary over time, responding to different economic events and financial crises. These results call for policymakers and governments to urgently integrate climate considerations into economic planning, fiscal policies, and regulatory frameworks to promote sustainable economic growth and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

Curbing methane emissions from Italian cattle farms. An agroeconomic modelling simulation of alternative policy tools.

Methane (CH4) emissions from cattle farms have been prioritised on the EU agenda, as shown by recent legislative initiatives. This study employs a supply-side agroeconomic model that mimics the behaviour of heterogeneous individual farms to simulate the application of alternative economic policy instruments to curb CH4 emissions from Italian cattle farms, as identified by the 2020 Farm Accountancy Data Network survey. Simulations consider increasing levels of a tax on each tonne of CH4 emitted or of a subsidy paid for each tonne of CH4 curbed with respect to the baseline. Individual marginal abatement costs are also derived. Besides, to consider possible technological options to curb emissions, a mitigation strategy is simulated, with different levels of costs and benefits to appraise the potential impacts on the sector. Relevant reductions in operating income are foreseen, the most substantial in farm types and size classes characterised by lower levels of carbon productivity. The introduction of the mitigation strategy shows that the outcome in terms of mitigation potential, without undermining production level, highly depends on the implementation costs, but can also vary widely due to heterogeneous farms' economic performances. Policy implications are also derived.

The responsiveness of renewable energy production to geopolitical risks, oil market instability and economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from United States.

This paper aims to investigate the responsiveness of renewable energy production (REP) to fluctuations in geopolitical risks, oil prices and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). It applies a cross-quantilogram framework to examine monthly data of the US economy for the period of 1986-2022. The findings illustrate the asymmetric effect of historical geopolitical risk (GPRH) on REP under long memory. The findings also hold after different subcategories of GPRH, including geopolitical threats and geopolitical acts, are considered. A positive shock in GPRH has the most decisive positive impact on REP when the policies are driven by both energy security and environmental commitments. A positive shock in GPRH can negatively impact REP when policies are driven by energy security causes only. EPU exerts strong negative effects on REP in bearish and bullish states of the market under medium and long memory across different measures of EPU. Dynamic connectedness analysis applying TVP-VAR method between pairwise variables indicates that net REP is a volatility receiver to the changes in GPRH, its subcomponents, oil prices and different measures of EPU.

A realist evaluation of policy interventions to reduce public subsidies of private dental care in Finland.

OBJECTIVES: The Finnish dental care market operates as a dual system, divided between a regulated, affordable public sector and a less regulated, more expensive private sector that receives public subsidies. In 2015 and 2016, two policy interventions were introduced to reduce these subsidies for private dental services. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of these policy changes on the dental care market. METHODS: This study was a realist evaluation. Context-Intervention-Mechanism-Outcome-configurations were applied to elicit an initial program theory (IPT) for the policy interventions. The IPT allowed a complicated system to be reduced to the main components, allowing for better understanding of the underlying mechanisms and the chain of events started by the interventions. The resulting hypotheses about the chain of events and outcomes were tested against a dataset collected from the Social Insurance Institution of Finland (SII) registries on public and private dental visits in the cities of Espoo, Helsinki and Oulu during the years 2010-2016. The used dataset consisted of N = 17 111 625 dental procedures or N = 8 139 990 individual visits (which can include several procedures) at a public (n = 9 097 407 procedures, n = 4 083 475 visits) or a private (n = 8 014 218 procedures or n = 4 056 515 visits) dental clinic. The system was studied during three time periods related to the two interventions in 2015 and in 2016. Changes were evaluated by statistically analysing changes in several key metrics: mean subsidy, mean out-of-pocket price, mean (non-subsidized) price, number of patients treated, number of professionals, procedures per professional, Case-Mix adjusted procedures per professional, patient-to-professional ratio, total procedures. RESULTS: The 2015 and 2016 reductions to the subsidization of private dental care reduced the average subsidies paid to the private dental sector by 49% [-49.1, -38.8]. A 26% [25.2, 26.7] increase in the out-of-pocket price paid in the private sector was observed. Over the 2 years, 12.2% of patients left the private sector and an increase of 13% was observed in the number of patients treated in the public sector. The public sector increased its number of dental care professionals by 2.3% and the patient-to-professional ratio increased by 9.9% over the 2 years, while the private sector lost 4.6% of its dental care professionals and increased its prices by 4.0% [3.5, 4.5]. CONCLUSIONS: The policy changes had tangible effects on both the private and public sectors of the Finnish dental care market. By reducing subsidies, the private sector became more expensive for patients, causing many to transition to the public sector for their dental needs. While the public sector increased its capacity to accommodate the rise in patients, the demand still outpaced the growth in professionals, hinting at capacity or resource constraints in the public sector. The results also show initial evidence that contrary to the objectives, the policy changes increased the cost to the public sector as subsidized patient cared for in the private sector costs less to the government than treating that same patient in the public sector.

Are economic policy uncertainty and carbon futures price interacting? Evidence from the European Union.

This paper investigates the dynamic interplay between economic policy uncertainty and the carbon futures market within the context of global low-carbon development. The study utilizes a comprehensive dataset spanning 2005 to 2023, including daily observations of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and carbon future prices (EUAP) in the European Union. Bootstrap subsample rolling window Granger causality tests are employed to examine the interrelationship between EPU and EUAP, providing robust and time-varying causal insights. The findings reveal the adverse impact of EPU on EUAP, highlighting that the volatility associated with economic policy uncertainty can serve as a predictive factor for carbon future prices. On the other hand, the EUAP exhibits a negative influence on the uncertainty of economic policy, indicating that the economic situation in Europe can be observed through the carbon future market. The findings presented in this study are in line with the underlying theoretical model of policy uncertainty and future prices. Considering the complex economic environment and the influence exerted by COVID-19, exploring the link between EPU and EUAP is crucial for informing investors' decision-making and guiding the development of policy to enhance carbon market efficiency and promote a low-carbon economy.

Navigating the interconnected risks in currency valuation: unveiling the role of climate policy uncertainty.

Given the significance of fostering sustainable climate conditions for long-term economic stability and financial resilience, this study probes the connection between climate-related policy ambiguity and its implications for currency valuation. In doing so, the current study investigates the interconnected effects of climate policy on economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk with the currency valuation in ASEAN countries. Employing wavelet coherence analysis and partial wavelet coherence analysis, the paper highlights the complex relationships among these factors and their implications for exchange rate fluctuations. Using data from 2000 to 2022, the findings reveal that climate policy uncertainty is an important driver of exchange rate movements, amplifying the impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk. Furthermore, the study identifies a vicious cycle between climate policy uncertainty and exchange rates, potentially impacting the region's macroeconomic stability and long-term economic growth. The study presents several policy recommendations to address economic and climate policy uncertainties comprehensively based on the findings. These recommendations include establishing national frameworks for climate risk management, enhancing policy credibility and macroeconomic stability, and promoting regional integration to mitigate the influence of geopolitical risk on exchange rates.

Uncovering the asymmetric impacts of economic policy uncertainty on green financial markets in China.

Green finance is considered a novel tool of financing to promote the development of the green economy, which has huge investment attractiveness. Previous studies detected the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the green financial markets are mixed. To this end, this study deeply investigates the asymmetric and heterogeneous impacts of EPU on the green bond and green stock markets based on the quantile-on-quantile (QQ) method. Using the data of China Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (CNEPU) and green financial indices, we get some interesting results. (1) EPU has an overall negative effect on the green financial markets, and the green stock market reacts more strongly than the green bond market. (2) For green bond market, the higher quantiles of EPU on a bear market have more significant effect than that on a bull market. (3) For green stock market, a negative effect of EPU on green stock market is observed for the lower quantiles of EPU, while a positive effect is noted at the highest quantiles of EPU. This paper could provide a reference for investors making green investment strategies and for policymakers making policies to promote green development.

Impact of economic policy uncertainty and renewable energy on environmental quality: testing the LCC hypothesis for fast growing economies.

This study investigates the influence of economic policy uncertainty and trade openness on load capacity factor for fast growing countries for time period of 1996-2019. The empirical outcomes verify the presence of the LCC hypothesis in fast growing economies. Results also show that economic policy uncertainty reduces environmental quality for lower quantiles, whereas renewable energy consumption is a useful tool for improving environmental quality. Moreover, the negative sign of the coefficient of trade openness demonstrates that the current pattern of trade is not providing the desired outcomes. Based on these empirical findings, we suggest a comprehensive policy framework to attain the targets of SDG 07 (renewable energy), SDG 08 (economic growth), and SDG 13 (climate action).

Environmental cost of natural resources, globalization, and economic policy uncertainty in the G-7 bloc: do human capital and renewable energy matter?

The panel of G-7 economies is considered one of the most prosperous economies, endowed with abundant natural and renewable energy resources. Due to their richness in these resources, most economic development and activities, including environmental and economic aspects, depend on and are determined by energy consumption and natural resource rents. However, the increasing dependence of G-7 economies on energy consumption and natural resources raises questions about their long-term growth and ecological policies towards achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). Therefore, the main objective of this study is to examine the influence of natural resources, renewable energy, economic policy uncertainty, human capital, and globalization on the ecological footprint in the panel of G-7 economies from 1990 to 2020. After confirming the cross-sectional dependence issue, this study applied second-generation panel data approaches to estimate robust and reliable outcomes. The estimated evidence from this study discovered that natural resources, globalization processes, and economic policy uncertainty significantly increase the level of ecological footprint in the region. In contrast, renewable energy and human capital provide feasible solutions for ecological improvement in the study area. Likewise, the interactive role of renewable energy with economic policy uncertainty significantly protects the environmental quality in the study area. Based on the estimated findings, this study recommends various achievable policy options for policymakers and the governments of these economies to ensure environmental sustainability.